Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
